Hunter Renfrow Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Renfrow

WR · Las Vegas Raiders

Receiving Yards

Tennessee Titans vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 21, 2022 10:40 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Renfrow Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 30.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 46.5 @ -115 before it was bet down to 30.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Las Vegas Raiders boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Josh McDaniels, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 1.2% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
THE BLITZ projects the Las Vegas Raiders to be the 9th-most pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 62.8% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 36.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tennessee Titans defense since the start of last season: 8th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Renfrow to notch 6.3 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 80th percentile among wideouts.
Hunter Renfrow has been an integral part of his team's passing offense, earning a Target Share of 21.3% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 84th percentile among WRs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Raiders to call the 4th-least total plays on the slate this week with 57.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The Las Vegas Raiders have played in the most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in football since the start of last season, which ought to mean lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced pass game efficiency when facing windier conditions this week.
The Las Vegas Raiders offensive line ranks as the 10th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
Hunter Renfrow's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Completion% falling off from 83.3% to 64.2%.
Hunter Renfrow's pass-game efficiency has diminished this year, averaging just 5.85 yards-per-target vs a 8.89 rate last year.