Hunter Henry Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots · Week 8, 2026

Updated Oct 30, 2026 3:44 PM EST

Analysis

Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+152/-183).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +173 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +152.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the New England Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 59.9% red zone pass rate.
While Hunter Henry has received 15.2% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be much more involved in New England's offense near the goal line this week at 21.4%.
In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the strong effect it has on all passing offense statistics), the offensive line of the New England Patriots profiles as the 2nd-best in the league this year.
Hunter Henry's ball-catching skills have gotten a boost this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate jumping from 73.2% to 90.5%.
This year, the poor Dolphins defense has been torched for a whopping 80.6% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the largest rate in football.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a heavy 7-point favorite in this game, likely creating an extreme rushing game script.
The projections expect the Patriots to be the 4th-least pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 52.8% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are expected by the predictive model to run only 61.0 offensive plays in this game: the fewest among all teams this week.
Opposing QBs teams have been disinclined to lean on the pass against the Miami Dolphins, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in football (a mere 31.8 per game) this year.
Hunter Henry has totaled far fewer air yards this year (24.0 per game) than he did last year (40.0 per game).