Hunter Henry Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs New York Jets · Week 6, 2026

Updated Oct 18, 2026 9:22 AM EST

Analysis

Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+245/-251).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The model projects the Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL near the goal line (context-neutralized) at the moment with a 60.5% red zone pass rate.
The pass games of both teams (as it relates to both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being predicted in this game, while run volume may drop.
Hunter Henry has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 16.0% this year, which puts him in the 83rd percentile when it comes to tight ends.
As it relates to pass-blocking (and the strong impact it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots ranks as the 2nd-best in football this year.
Hunter Henry's 84.2% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching skills over last season's 73.2% mark.

Favors Under

This game's line indicates an extreme rushing game script for the Patriots, who are a massive favorite by 7 points.
Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 54.2% of their chances: the 4th-lowest frequency on the slate this week.
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Patriots are expected by the predictive model to call just 61.7 plays on offense in this game: the lowest number among all teams this week.
After totaling 40.0 air yards per game last year, Hunter Henry has gotten worse this year, now pacing 26.0 per game.
Hunter Henry's 25.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) has been notably lower this season than it was last season at 37.0.