Hunter Henry Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

New England Patriots vs Las Vegas Raiders · Week 5, 2026

Updated Oct 11, 2026 12:47 PM EST

Analysis

Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+223/-228).

Key Factors

Favors Over

Right now, the 6th-most pass-centric team in the NFL near the goal line (61.1% context-neutralized) according to the model is the New England Patriots.
While Hunter Henry has received 6.7% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New England's passing attack near the end zone in this contest at 20.5%.
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
Hunter Henry's 85.7% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates a noteworthy progression in his pass-catching talent over last season's 73.2% mark.
This year, the anemic Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has yielded a whopping 82.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing TEs: the 4th-highest rate in football.

Favors Under

A rushing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a 3.5-point favorite in this game.
Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 54.5% of their chances: the 9th-lowest clip on the slate this week.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to call the 6th-fewest plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.3 plays, based on their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics.
Hunter Henry has put up quite a few less air yards this season (26.0 per game) than he did last season (40.0 per game).
Hunter Henry's 25.9 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this year than it was last year at 37.0.