Hunter Henry Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Sep 30, 2026 10:12 AM EST

Analysis

Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+265/-341).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -341.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
The model projects the New England Patriots to be the 6th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) right now with a 60.6% red zone pass rate.
While Hunter Henry has garnered 11.1% of his offense's red zone targets in games he has played this year, our trusted projections expect him to be a much bigger part of New England's pass game near the goal line in this week's game at 20.5%.
In regards to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the lofty 90th percentile among tight ends since the start of last season, averaging a whopping 38.0 per game.
Hunter Henry's 35.1 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 86th percentile for TEs.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to call only 61.0 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.
The Bills pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.1%) to tight ends since the start of last season (67.1%).
Since the start of last season, the anemic Buffalo Bills run defense has allowed a colossal 1.30 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the biggest rate in the NFL.
When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Buffalo's group of DEs has been dreadful since the start of last season, projecting as the 2nd-worst in the league. in the league.