Hunter Henry Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

Jacksonville Jaguars vs New England Patriots · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 3:48 PM EST

Analysis

Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+257/-285).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to a passing game script.
At the present time, the 5th-most pass-focused team in football in the red zone (61.5% adjusted for context) according to our trusted projection set is the New England Patriots.
The Jaguars defense has been a prominent pass funnel since the start of last season, leading opposing teams to attempt the 2nd-most passes in the NFL (36.4 per game) since the start of last season.
Hunter Henry has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 30.7% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 98th percentile among TEs.
Hunter Henry has posted a whopping 39.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 90th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

Given the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is predicted by the projections to see only 126.0 plays on offense run: the 5th-fewest on the slate this week.
The Jaguars linebackers grade out as the best group of LBs in football since the start of last season in covering receivers.

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