Hunter Henry Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 1

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Touchdowns

Seattle Seahawks vs New England Patriots · Week 1, 2026

Updated Sep 9, 2026 9:47 PM EST

Analysis

Hunter Henry Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+305/-325).

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their standard game plan.
The leading projections forecast the Patriots to be the 7th-most pass-heavy team among all teams this week with a 59.8% pass rate, based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.
The pass attacks of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) figure to benefit from the still weather conditions (4-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may suffer.
The Seahawks defense has been a bit of pass funnel last year, tempting opposing teams to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (36.1 per game) last year.
When it comes to air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the towering 90th percentile among tight ends last year, averaging an astounding 40.0 per game.

Favors Under

The model projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-fewest plays on offense among all teams this week with 60.9 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
While Hunter Henry has earned 30.6% of his team's red zone targets in games he has played last year, the predictive model expects him to be a much smaller part of New England's pass game near the end zone in this contest at 22.1%.
Last year, the strong Seahawks defense has conceded a measly 66.7% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing teams: the 5th-smallest rate in the league.

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