Hunter Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

Buffalo Bills vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2026

Updated Oct 1, 2026 10:42 PM EST

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's game, which points towards a passing game script.
Hunter Henry has run a route on 73.7% of his team's passing plays since the start of last season, putting him in the 86th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
In this contest, Hunter Henry is forecasted by the predictive model to place in the 80th percentile among TEs with 4.9 targets.
The Patriots offensive line profiles as the 4th-best in football since the start of last season in protecting the passer, which has a positive effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Hunter Henry profiles as one of the best pass-game TEs since the start of last season, averaging an exceptional 2.9 adjusted catches per game while checking in at the 78th percentile.

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 4th-least pass-centric team in the NFL (in a neutral context) this year with a 50.6% pass rate.
Based on their underlying play style and game dynamics, the New England Patriots are projected by our trusted projection set to call only 61.1 total plays in this contest: the 2nd-lowest number among all teams this week.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Buffalo Bills, averaging the 4th-fewest attempts in football (just 29.8 per game) since the start of last season.
The Bills pass defense has conceded the 2nd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the NFL (67.1%) to tight ends since the start of last season (67.1%).
The Bills safeties project as the 7th-best collection of safeties in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.