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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 5

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-141/+108).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +120 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +108.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is suggested by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.

Still weather conditions (like the 2-mph wind being forecasted in this game) usually cause better passing effectiveness, higher touchdown potential, higher air volume, and reduced ground volume.

The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to total 5.1 targets in this game, on average, placing him in the 89th percentile among TEs.

Hunter Henry's 48.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive usage) has been quite a bit higher this season than it was last season at 33.2.

Hunter Henry grades out as one of the best pass-catching TEs this year, averaging an excellent 3.5 adjusted receptions per game while checking in at the 84th percentile.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

Given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the New England Patriots to pass on 54.3% of their chances: the 8th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by the projections to have only 124.5 total plays called: the 4th-fewest on the slate this week.

Opposing teams have averaged 26.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Dolphins defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.

The Patriots O-line grades out as the 7th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass game stats across the board.

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