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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 4

San Francisco 49ers vs New England Patriots

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-125/-105).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +115 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -105.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game's spread implies an extreme throwing game script for the Patriots, who are big -11.5-point underdogs.

The 49ers defense has been a well-known pass funnel since the start of last season, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in the NFL (35.2 per game) since the start of last season.

The projections expect Hunter Henry to accrue 6.0 targets in this contest, on balance, placing him in the 94th percentile when it comes to TEs.

With an outstanding 3.4 adjusted receptions per game (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Hunter Henry stands among the top pass-catching TEs in football.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the New England Patriots to be the 4th-least pass-focused team in football (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 55.3% pass rate.

Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the projection model to see just 122.0 offensive plays called: the lowest number out of all the games this week.

The 7th-smallest volume of plays in the league have been called by the Patriots since the start of last season (just 56.3 per game on average).

The projections expect Hunter Henry to be a much smaller part of his team's air attack in this contest (19.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (25.4% in games he has played).

When it comes to pass-blocking (and the influence it has on all pass game statistics), the O-line of the Patriots ranks as the 5th-worst in football since the start of last season.

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