Hunter Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 18, 2023 4:01 AM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-113/-113).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +106 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -113.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, indicating more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
At only 26.68 seconds per snap, the New England Patriots offense rates as the 5th-quickest paced in the NFL (adjusted for context) this year.
The projections expect Hunter Henry to earn 4.6 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 79th percentile when it comes to tight ends.
Hunter Henry's 30.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive involvement) grades out among the league leaders: 82nd percentile for tight ends.
When it comes to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's group of safeties has been very bad this year, ranking as the 5th-worst in the league.

Favors Under

The Patriots have been the 6th-least pass-focused offense in football (in a neutral context) this year with a 58.3% pass rate.
Opposing teams teams have been reluctant to test the pass defense of the Kansas City Chiefs, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 33.2 per game) this year.
The Patriots O-line ranks as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.
Hunter Henry's receiving reliability have tailed off this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate falling off from 72.5% to 67.3%.

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