Hunter Henry Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receptions

New England Patriots vs Detroit Lions · Week 5, 2022

Updated Oct 9, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+139/-191).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -152 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -191.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be forced to use backup quarterback Bailey Zappe in this week's game, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushing.
Opposing offenses have averaged 40.2 pass attempts per game versus the Detroit Lions defense this year: 7th-most in the NFL.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to earn 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to be a more integral piece of his offense's pass game this week (14.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.9% in games he has played).
The New England Patriots offensive line ranks as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a strong impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 3rd-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 52.4% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 5th-most sluggish paced defense in football (context-neutralized) right now, leading opposing offenses to average 29.07 seconds per play.
The weather forecast calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Hunter Henry's receiving performance has tailed off this season, notching just 1.3 yards per game compared to 3.0 last season.

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