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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receptions
Player Prop Week 15

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots

Hunter Henry Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-165/+123).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -161 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -165.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 5th-most pass-centric team among all teams this week with a 63.8% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accumulate 4.2 targets in this contest, on average, ranking him in the 81st percentile among tight ends.

The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.3%) vs. TEs this year (75.3%).

The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.

The New England Patriots have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.

Hunter Henry's 25.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 34.8.

The New England Patriots O-line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

The New England Patriots have gone no-huddle on just 2.6% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (4th-least in football). This deadens the pace, resulting in less volume and stat production.

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