Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs New England Patriots · Week 16, 2025

Updated Dec 22, 2025 1:12 AM EST

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 41.5 (-111/-111).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 36.5 @ -111 before it was bet up to 41.5 @ -111.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -3.5-point disadvantage, the Patriots are underdogs in this game, implying more of a reliance on throwing than their usual approach.
Right now, the 5th-most pass-heavy team in the NFL (64.1% in a neutral context) according to the projections is the New England Patriots.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.9 pass attempts per game vs. the Baltimore Ravens defense this year: 2nd-most in football.
The model projects Hunter Henry to notch 5.8 targets in this game, on balance, placing him in the 84th percentile among tight ends.
When talking about air yards, Hunter Henry grades out in the towering 92nd percentile among tight ends this year, accumulating an impressive 42.0 per game.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Patriots to run the 5th-fewest total plays on the slate this week with 62.7 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Hunter Henry's 38.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially lower this season than it was last season at 44.2.
Hunter Henry's ball-catching skills have tailed off this season, with his Adjusted Catch% falling off from 75.1% to 68.8%.
Hunter Henry's ability to generate extra yardage has worsened this year, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.06 rate last year.
The Baltimore Ravens defense has allowed the 9th-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 46.0) vs. TEs this year.

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