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Hunter Henry

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards
Player Prop Week 6

New England Patriots vs Houston Texans

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 24.5 (-132/+102).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 25.5 @ -114 before it was bet down to 24.5 @ +102.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

A passing game script is implied by the Patriots being a -4.5-point underdog in this game.

Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 127.8 offensive plays called: the 5th-highest number on the slate this week.

The predictive model expects Hunter Henry to total 4.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, ranking him in the 80th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Hunter Henry has put up a massive 44.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile among TEs.

Hunter Henry's 44.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 33.2.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The model projects the Patriots to be the 3rd-least pass-centric offense on the slate this week with a 50.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.

When it comes to pocket protection (and the importance it has on all passing game statistics), the offensive line of the Patriots grades out as the 5th-worst in the league this year.

This year, the imposing Texans defense has conceded a feeble 18.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-best in the league.

Since the start of last season, the stout Houston Texans defense has surrendered the 3rd-least adjusted yards-per-target in the NFL to opposing tight ends: a feeble 6.6 yards.

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