Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Washington Commanders · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 6, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 31.5 (-110/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 30.5 @ -102 before it was bet up to 31.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The leading projections forecast the New England Patriots to call the 6th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.5 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 37.8 pass attempts per game vs. the Commanders defense this year: 10th-most in football.
Our trusted projections expect Hunter Henry to garner 4.3 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 79th percentile among TEs.
Hunter Henry has compiled significantly more air yards this year (39.0 per game) than he did last year (28.0 per game).
Hunter Henry rates in the 83rd percentile among tight end WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that examines high-value offensive volume) with a monstrous 29.8 figure this year.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Patriots to be the 6th-least pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The New England offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in the league this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative impact on all passing attack stats across the board.
Hunter Henry's 68.9% Adjusted Catch% this season conveys a remarkable diminishment in his pass-catching talent over last season's 72.5% mark.
Hunter Henry's pass-catching effectiveness has tailed off this season, totaling just 7.13 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a 8.54 mark last season.
Hunter Henry's ability to grind out extra yardage has declined this year, compiling just 3.22 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 4.85 mark last year.

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