Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 4

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

Green Bay Packers vs New England Patriots · Week 4, 2022

Updated Oct 2, 2022 11:15 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 20.5 (+105/-150).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 20.5 @ -120 before it was bet down to 20.5 @ -150.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The New England Patriots will be rolling out backup QB Brian Hoyer this week, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.
The Patriots are a huge 9.5-point underdog in this week's game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to be a much bigger part of his team's pass attack this week (11.2% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (5.3% in games he has played).
Hunter Henry has totaled a colossal 42.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 91st percentile among tight ends.
Hunter Henry has been among the best TEs in the pass game since the start of last season, averaging a terrific 33.0 yards per game while checking in at the 79th percentile.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots as the 7th-least pass-centric team in the league (context-neutralized) right now with a 58.9% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 2nd-least plays on offense on the slate this week with 62.6 plays, given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in the league since the start of last season, averaging a lowly 56.6 plays per game.
Hunter Henry's ball-catching skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% shrinking from 69.6% to 61.8%.
Hunter Henry's receiving efficiency has diminished this season, notching a measly 5.50 yards-per-target vs a 8.55 mark last season.

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