Hunter Henry Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 17

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving Yards

New England Patriots vs Miami Dolphins · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 28.5 (+102/-133).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 28.5 @ -133 before it was bet down to 28.5 @ -133.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the New England Patriots to be the 10th-most pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 63.4% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to run the 9th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.6 plays, based on their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 38.6 pass attempts per game against the Miami Dolphins defense this year: 4th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Hunter Henry to accumulate 5.1 targets in this game, on average, ranking in the 81st percentile among tight ends.
The New England Patriots O-line profiles as the 10th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong impact on all pass game statistics across the board.

Favors Under

The Patriots are a 3-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
The New England Patriots have run the 3rd-least plays in football this year, totaling a lowly 53.9 plays per game.
Hunter Henry has totaled significantly fewer air yards this season (25.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Hunter Henry's 24.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly lower this year than it was last year at 34.8.
Hunter Henry has totaled quite a few less receiving yards per game (28.0) this season than he did last season (39.0).

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