Hunter Henry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Cleveland Browns vs New England Patriots · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+413/-904).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -882 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -904.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Patriots are a 3-point underdog in this week's game, indicating a passing game script.
Hunter Henry has been heavily involved in his team's pass game near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 17.6% this year, which puts him in the 88th percentile among tight ends.
The New England Patriots O-line grades out as the 5th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong impact on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cleveland Browns safeties profile as the 4th-worst group of safeties in football this year in covering receivers.
The New England Patriots have been faced with a stacked the box on 27.7% of their plays since the start of last season, most in the NFL. Keeping an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Patriots to call the least offensive plays on the slate this week with 63.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 7th-least plays in the NFL this year, totaling a lowly 55.4 plays per game.
The weather forecast calls for 13-mph wind in this game. High wind typically means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and decreased passing effectiveness.
Opposing teams have averaged 32.2 pass attempts per game vs. the Cleveland Browns defense this year: 4th-least in football.
Hunter Henry has accumulated quite a few less air yards this season (22.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).

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