Hunter Henry Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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Hunter Henry

NFL · Player Props

Hunter Henry

TE · New England Patriots

Receiving TD

Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots · Week 15, 2022

Updated Dec 19, 2022 12:26 AM EST

Analysis

Hunter Henry Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+309/-558).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -486 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -558.

Key Factors

Favors Over

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
Hunter Henry has been a key part of his team's pass game near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 17.1% this year, which ranks him in the 85th percentile among TEs.
The Las Vegas Raiders pass defense has given up the 10th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.3%) vs. TEs this year (75.3%).
The Las Vegas Raiders defense has given up the 5th-most TDs through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.46 per game this year.
The Las Vegas Raiders linebackers grade out as the worst unit in the NFL this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 4th-least plays run among all games this week at 127.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The New England Patriots have run the 4th-least plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.9 plays per game.
Hunter Henry has accumulated significantly fewer air yards this season (27.0 per game) than he did last season (46.0 per game).
Hunter Henry's 25.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially worse this year than it was last year at 34.8.
The New England Patriots O-line has given their QB just 2.53 seconds before the pass (9th-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all pass game metrics across the board.

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