Hayden Hurst Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 5

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NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Detroit Lions vs Carolina Panthers · Week 5, 2023

Updated Oct 8, 2023 4:01 PM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-114/-114).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ -113 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -114.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to skew 4.9% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this week's contest, indicating an extreme passing game script.
Accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Panthers to pass on 59.9% of their chances: the 8th-greatest frequency among all teams this week.
The leading projections forecast the Panthers to be the 5th-quickest paced defense in football (adjusted for context) at the present time, with opposing offenses averaging 27.46 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Favors Under

Hayden Hurst's 23.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been quite a bit lower this year than it was last year at 28.8.
The Panthers offensive line profiles as the worst in football this year in protecting the passer, which has a negative effect on all pass attack metrics across the board.
Hayden Hurst's play as a receiver has worsened this season, accumulating a mere 2.5 adjusted receptions vs 4.0 last season.
Hayden Hurst's 65.4% Adjusted Completion% this year shows a an impressive decrease in his receiving prowess over last year's 79.1% figure.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Detroit's unit has been outstanding this year, profiling as the 4th-best in the NFL.