Hayden Hurst Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Seattle Seahawks vs Carolina Panthers · Week 3, 2023

Updated Sep 24, 2023 8:01 PM EST

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+138/-182).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -182.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers will have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 6.5% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Panthers are a 4.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers as the 10th-quickest paced defense in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the moment, leading opposing offenses to average 27.52 seconds per snap.
The forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accrue 5.1 targets this week, on average, placing him in the 86th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 55.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Seattle Seahawks pass defense has surrendered the 10th-lowest Completion% in the league (69.8%) vs. tight ends since the start of last season (69.8%).

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