Hayden Hurst Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Carolina Panthers vs New Orleans Saints · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 11:06 PM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+105/-145).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +125 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to tilt 4.8% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context).
The Panthers are a 3-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather report calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing effectiveness.
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to accrue 4.8 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking in the 80th percentile among tight ends.
Hayden Hurst has been an integral part of his team's pass game, posting a Target Share of 15.1% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 87th percentile among TEs.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Carolina Panthers to be the 10th-least pass-heavy offense on the slate this week with a 55.7% pass rate, accounting for their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 2nd-smallest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 127.7 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Carolina Panthers have run the least plays in the league since the start of last season, totaling just 54.0 plays per game.
Hayden Hurst's possession skills have worsened this year, with his Completion% falling off from 79.1% to 69.3%.
The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in the league (50.3%) to TEs since the start of last season (50.3%).

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