Hayden Hurst Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receptions

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 10, 2023 3:31 AM EST

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+124/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Carolina Panthers offensive blueprint to skew 6.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3-point underdogs.
The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.8 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
This year, the weak Bears pass defense has allowed a colossal 83.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the NFL.

Favors Under

Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
The model projects the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Hayden Hurst has been utilized much less in his team's pass attack.
The Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
Hayden Hurst's pass-catching performance worsened this year, notching just 1.9 adjusted receptions vs 4.0 last year.

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