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Hayden Hurst

Hayden Hurst Receptions
Player Prop Week 10

Chicago Bears vs Carolina Panthers

Hayden Hurst Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (+124/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ +150 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ +124.
  • The projections expect the Carolina Panthers offensive blueprint to skew 6.5% more towards the passing game than it did last year (adjusted for context) with offensive coordinator Thomas Brown now calling the plays.
  • This week's spread implies a throwing game script for the Panthers, who are -3-point underdogs.
  • The 3rd-most plays in football have been run by the Panthers this year (a monstrous 63.8 per game on average).
  • Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Chicago Bears defense this year: 6th-most in the NFL.
  • This year, the weak Bears pass defense has allowed a colossal 83.6% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing TEs: the 2nd-biggest rate in the NFL.

  • Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Carolina Panthers to pass on 56.1% of their downs: the 9th-lowest clip among all teams this week.
  • The model projects the Panthers to call the 8th-fewest offensive plays among all teams this week with 62.7 plays, based on their underlying propensities and game dynamics.
  • With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Hayden Hurst has been utilized much less in his team's pass attack.
  • The Panthers offensive line grades out as the 2nd-worst in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
  • Hayden Hurst's pass-catching performance worsened this year, notching just 1.9 adjusted receptions vs 4.0 last year.

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