Hayden Hurst Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Hayden Hurst

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receptions

Cincinnati Bengals vs Carolina Panthers · Week 9, 2022

Updated Nov 6, 2022 9:01 PM EST

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+152/-214).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -214.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals as the 8th-most pass-centric offense among all teams this week with a 61.9% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals have called the 6th-most plays in the NFL this year, totaling a colossal 62.2 plays per game.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 37.5 pass attempts per game versus the Carolina Panthers defense this year: 10th-most in the league.
Hayden Hurst has been less involved as a potential target this year (74.7% Route% in games he has been on the field) than he did last year (44.9%).
THE BLITZ projects Hayden Hurst to total 5.7 targets this week, on average, ranking in the 88th percentile among tight ends.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 3.5-point favorite in this game, which points towards a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-least plays run out of all the games this week at 125.9 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line has allowed their QB a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all pass attack statistics across the board.
The Carolina Panthers pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.31 seconds after the snap (on average), ranking as the best in the league since the start of last season.
The Cincinnati Bengals have used play action on a mere 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the NFL), making the offense more predictable and lowering passing effectiveness.

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