Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Carolina Panthers

Receiving Yards

Carolina Panthers vs Indianapolis Colts · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 5, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 15.5 (-110/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Carolina Panthers have a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Thomas Brown, and the leading projections forecast their pass/run mix to skew 6.2% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this contest is forecasted by the projection model to have 133.0 total plays run: the highest number among all games this week.
The Panthers have called the 4th-most plays in football this year, averaging a monstrous 63.4 plays per game.
The passing games of both teams (in terms of both volume and efficiency) ought to benefit from the still weather conditions (3-mph wind) being called for in this game, while rush volume may go down.
Hayden Hurst has put up a staggering 24.0 air yards per game this year: 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.

Favors Under

Hayden Hurst's 21.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that calculates high-value offensive volume) has been substantially worse this season than it was last season at 28.8.
As it relates to protecting the passer (and the importance it has on all pass attack stats), the O-line of the Carolina Panthers profiles as the 2nd-worst in the league this year.
Hayden Hurst has accrued a lot fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (17.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).
Hayden Hurst's 59.7% Adjusted Catch Rate this year illustrates a noteable reduction in his receiving ability over last year's 79.1% mark.
Hayden Hurst's 5.1 adjusted yards per target this year conveys a noteable reduction in his receiving skills over last year's 6.6 rate.