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Hayden Hurst

Hayden Hurst Receiving TD
Player Prop Week 6

New Orleans Saints vs Cincinnati Bengals

Hayden Hurst Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+299/-529).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -481 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -529.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE OVER:

This game will be played in a dome—which means zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.

Hayden Hurst has been a big part of his team's offense near the goal line, garnering a Red Zone Target Share of 18.8% this year, which places him in the 90th percentile among tight ends.

Hayden Hurst has accrued a whopping 24.0 air yards per game this year: 83rd percentile among tight ends.

Hayden Hurst's 28.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 16.6.

Hayden Hurst ranks in the 91st percentile among TEs when it comes to catching TDs this year, averaging an impressive 0.40 per game.

FACTORS THAT FAVOR THE UNDER:

The Bengals are a 3-point favorite this week, likely leading to a rushing game script.

THE BLITZ projects the Cincinnati Bengals offense as the 7th-worst paced team in the league (in a neutral context) at the present time, averaging 29.51 seconds per play.

Opposing offenses have averaged 34.0 pass attempts per game versus the New Orleans Saints defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.

The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line grades out as the 9th-worst in the league this year in protecting the passer, which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.

The New Orleans Saints pass defense has surrendered the 2nd-lowest Completion% in the league (51.7%) to TEs this year (51.7%).

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