Hayden Hurst Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

NFL · Player Props

Hayden Hurst

TE · Cincinnati Bengals

Receiving TD

New York Jets vs Cincinnati Bengals · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 7:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Hayden Hurst Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+274/-464).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +279 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +274.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-highest volume of plays run among all games this week at 124.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Hayden Hurst has accounted for a whopping 12.5% of his offense's air yards this year: 84th percentile among tight ends.
Hayden Hurst has been among the most reliable receivers in football among tight ends, completing an impressive 80.4% of balls thrown his way this year, ranking in the 80th percentile.
The New York Jets pass defense has conceded the 5th-highest Completion% in the NFL (75.7%) versus TEs since the start of last season (75.7%).
The New York Jets defense has surrendered the 9th-most TDs through the air in the league to tight ends: 0.42 per game since the start of last season.

Favors Under

The Bengals are a 6.5-point favorite this week, which points towards a rushing game script.
The Cincinnati Bengals O-line profiles as the 9th-worst in football since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals offensive line has allowed their quarterback a mere 2.49 seconds before the pass (3rd-worst in football since the start of last season), which has a negative effect on all passing game stats across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals have utilized play action on a measly 18.9% of their passing plays since the start of last season (4th-least in the league), creating a more one-dimensional offense that hurts passing production.
The Cincinnati Bengals have gone no-huddle on a lowly 2.3% of their plays outside the two-minute warning since the start of last season (2nd-least in the NFL). This deadens the pace, leading to less volume and stat accumulation.