Gus Edwards Rushing Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 16

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Rushing Yards

Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta Falcons · Week 16, 2022

Updated Dec 25, 2022 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Rushing Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 45.5 (-120/-120).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 6.5-point favorite in this game, likely creating a rushing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens to be the 4th-most run-centric offense among all teams this week with a 54.6% run rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The forecast calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and worse passing efficiency.
Opposing squads have run for the 8th-most yards in the NFL (135 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box versus opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in the league. Choosing not to keep an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects this game to see the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 122.2 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects Gus Edwards to be a much smaller piece of his offense's running game this week (27.5% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.6% in games he has played).

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