Gus Edwards Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 2

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NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Cincinnati Bengals vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 2, 2023

Updated Sep 18, 2023 2:31 AM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and THE BLITZ projects their pass/run mix to lean 4.4% more towards passing than it did last year (context-neutralized).
The Ravens are a 3.5-point underdog this week, likely creating a passing game script.
The weather forecast calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Baltimore Ravens O-line grades out as the 3rd-best in the NFL since the start of last season in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong effect on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Cincinnati Bengals safeties project as the 4th-worst safety corps in football since the start of last season in pass coverage.

Favors Under

The Ravens have been the 7th-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (in a neutral context) since the start of last season with a 55.1% pass rate.
THE BLITZ projects the Baltimore Ravens offense to be the 6th-slowest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) right now, averaging 29.22 seconds per snap.
Gus Edwards has been has not been looked to very often his team's offense, posting a Target Share of just 0.4% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 6th percentile among RBs.
Gus Edwards has been among the worst pass-game RBs since the start of last season, averaging a mere 0.0 yards per game while checking in at the 1st percentile among RBs.
The Cincinnati Bengals pass defense has allowed the 4th-lowest Completion% in the league (74.6%) vs. running backs since the start of last season (74.6%).