Gus Edwards Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 12

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Receiving Yards

Los Angeles Chargers vs Baltimore Ravens · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 1:21 AM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 10.5 (+150/-200).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 10.5 @ -165 before it was bet down to 10.5 @ -200.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Baltimore Ravens boast a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to tilt 3.6% more towards passing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
Based on their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Baltimore Ravens are projected by the projection model to call 66.5 offensive plays in this contest: the 6th-highest number on the slate this week.
The Chargers defense has been a glaring pass funnel this year, causing opposing offenses to attempt the 2nd-most passes in football (40.5 per game) this year.
Gus Edwards's 29.7% Route% this year indicates a noteworthy growth in his passing offense workload over last year's 9.6% rate.
Gus Edwards has totaled a staggering 1.0 air yards per game this year: 81st percentile among RBs. (This might not seem like very many, but most RBs average negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).

Favors Under

With a 3-point advantage, the Ravens are favored in this week's game, suggesting more of an emphasis on rushing than their standard approach.
Based on their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens to pass on 53.9% of their opportunities: the 9th-lowest frequency among all teams this week.

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