Gus Edwards Carries - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Gus Edwards

NFL · Player Props

Gus Edwards

RB · Baltimore Ravens

Carries

Baltimore Ravens vs Cleveland Browns · Week 10, 2023

Updated Nov 12, 2023 8:31 PM UTC

Analysis

Gus Edwards Carries Prop is currently Over/Under 12.5 (+105/-135).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 11.5 @ -130 before it was bet up to 12.5 @ +105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Ravens are a 6-point favorite in this week's game, likely creating a rushing game script.
The predictive model expects the Baltimore Ravens as the 2nd-most run-focused team on the slate this week with a 49.9% run rate, based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is predicted by the predictive model to see 130.4 offensive plays called: the 2nd-most among all games this week.

Favors Under

The Baltimore Ravens feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Todd Monken, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 3.4% more towards passing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Our trusted projections expect Gus Edwards to be a much smaller piece of his offense's run game this week (26.8% projected Carry Share) than he has been this year (37.0% in games he has played).
When it comes to the defensive tackles' role in defending against the run, Cleveland's group of DTs has been terrific this year, grading out as the 6th-best in the league.

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