Greg Dulcich Touchdowns - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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NFL · Player Props

Greg Dulcich

TE · Miami Dolphins

Touchdowns

Miami Dolphins vs Kansas City Chiefs · Week 3, 2026

Updated Sep 27, 2026 4:27 PM EST

Analysis

Greg Dulcich Touchdowns Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+456/-564).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 1.5 @ 0 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -564.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At a -9.5-point disadvantage, the Dolphins are massive underdogs this week, indicating much more of a focus on moving the ball through the air than their normal game plan.
The weatherman calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind typically means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
With a top-tier 17.5% Red Zone Target Rate (83rd percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dulcich rates among the tight ends with the highest volume near the goal line in the league.
Greg Dulcich's 24.3 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) grades out among the best in the league: 79th percentile for TEs.
Since the start of last season, the anemic Kansas City Chiefs pass defense has surrendered a massive 85.7% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing tight ends: the largest rate in football.

Favors Under

Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Miami Dolphins to pass on 55.4% of their downs: the 11th-lowest rate among all teams this week.
The model projects the Miami Dolphins to be the 2nd-most run-centric offense in football near the end zone (context-neutralized) at the present time with a 49.6% red zone run rate.
Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is predicted by the model to see only 121.5 offensive plays called: the 2nd-lowest number on the slate this week.
The smallest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Dolphins since the start of last season (a lowly 51.6 per game on average).
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 30.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Chiefs defense since the start of last season: 8th-fewest in the NFL.