Greg Dortch Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Greg Dortch

NFL · Player Props

Greg Dortch

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 3, 2023 8:26 PM UTC

Analysis

Greg Dortch Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-110/-130).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Greg Dortch to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense in this week's game (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.0% in games he has played).

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Cardinals as the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Greg Dortch's receiving talent has diminished this year, totaling a measly 2.5 adjusted catches vs 4.7 last year.
Greg Dortch's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 80.2% to 54.5%.

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