Greg Dortch Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

NFL · Player Props

Greg Dortch

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 12, 2023

Updated Nov 27, 2023 2:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Greg Dortch Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-115/-115).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +140 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ -115.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The pass games of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) stand to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (i.e. zero wind) inside this dome, while ground volume may fall-off.
Our trusted projections expect Greg Dortch to be a much bigger part of his offense's air attack in this week's game (16.1% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.2% in games he has played).
With an outstanding 4.2 adjusted catches per game (80th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dortch stands among the top WRs in the game in football.
With a fantastic 79.9% Adjusted Catch Rate (98th percentile) since the start of last season, Greg Dortch stands among the best possession receivers in the NFL among wide receivers.
The Rams linebackers profile as the 2nd-worst unit in football this year in defending pass-catchers.

Favors Under

The predictive model expects the Cardinals offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with head coach Jonathan Gannon now calling the plays.
Right now, the 8th-least pass-heavy team in the NFL (58.9% context-neutralized) according to the model is the Arizona Cardinals.
Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Cardinals are forecasted by the projection model to run only 64.1 offensive plays in this contest: the 10th-lowest number among all teams this week.
The Arizona offensive line ranks as the 4th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a harmful influence on all air attack metrics across the board.
The Rams pass defense has given up the 3rd-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (58.4%) vs. wideouts this year (58.4%).