Greg Dortch Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 17

NFL · Player Props

Greg Dortch

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receptions

Atlanta Falcons vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 17, 2022

Updated Jan 1, 2023 5:51 PM EST

Analysis

Greg Dortch Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-158/+124).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ -136 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -158.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Arizona Cardinals will be rolling out backup QB David Blough in this week's contest, which generally means fewer pass attempts and more rush attempts.
The Cardinals are a huge 7.5-point underdog this week, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals to be the 9th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 62.3% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to have the 5th-most plays run out of all the games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have run the 2nd-most plays in football this year, averaging a colossal 63.1 plays per game.

Favors Under

Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 33.3 pass attempts per game vs. the Atlanta Falcons defense this year: 8th-least in the league.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the NFL since the start of last season), which has a negative impact on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Atlanta Falcons defensive front has gotten pressure on opposing quarterbacks just 2.43 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 9th-best in the NFL since the start of last season.
The Arizona Cardinals have gone up against a stacked the box on a mere 9.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 2nd-least in football. Positioning an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves run-stopping at the cost of better passing efficiency.
The Atlanta Falcons have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 11.5% of their plays since the start of last season, 6th-least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.