Greg Dortch Receiving Yards - Player Prop Bet Week 13

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Greg Dortch

NFL · Player Props

Greg Dortch

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving Yards

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Arizona Cardinals · Week 13, 2023

Updated Dec 4, 2023 3:51 AM UTC

Analysis

Greg Dortch Receiving Yards Prop is currently Over/Under 32.5 (-120/-110).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 32.5 @ -115 before it was bet up to 32.5 @ -120.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 6.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely leading to a passing game script.
The leading projections forecast the Arizona Cardinals offense to be the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (adjusted for context) at the present time, averaging 26.17 seconds per play.
The leading projections forecast Greg Dortch to be a much bigger part of his team's passing offense in this week's game (16.0% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (7.0% in games he has played).
After totaling 18.0 air yards per game last season, Greg Dortch has seen a big downtick this season, now sitting at 12.0 per game.
Greg Dortch's ability to generate extra yardage has gotten a boost this season, totaling 8.60 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a measly 4.50 rate last season.

Favors Under

The Cardinals boast a new play-caller this season in head coach Jonathan Gannon, and the model projects their pass/run mix to skew 1.9% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The model projects the Cardinals as the 8th-least pass-focused team among all teams this week with a 56.4% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.
The Cardinals O-line ranks as the 5th-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a negative effect on all pass attack stats across the board.
Greg Dortch has posted significantly fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (27.0) this season than he did last season (42.0).
Greg Dortch's ball-catching skills have declined this season, with his Adjusted Completion% falling off from 80.2% to 54.5%.

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