Greg Dortch Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 3

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Greg Dortch

NFL · Player Props

Greg Dortch

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs Los Angeles Rams · Week 3, 2022

Updated Sep 25, 2022 11:30 PM UTC

Analysis

Greg Dortch Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+271/-457).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 0.5 @ +303 before it was bet up to 0.5 @ +271.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Cardinals are a 3.5-point underdog in this game, indicating a passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Arizona Cardinals offense as the 7th-fastest paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 26.25 seconds per play.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game versus the Los Angeles Rams defense since the start of last season: 6th-most in the league.
THE BLITZ projects Greg Dortch to be much more involved in his team's air attack near the end zone this week (17.1% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been since the start of last season (6.1% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Greg Dortch has totaled a puny 11.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: a lowly 17th percentile among wideouts.
The Los Angeles Rams defense has yielded the 6th-least passing TDs in the NFL to wide receivers: 0.79 per game since the start of last season.
The Los Angeles Rams cornerbacks grade out as the 2nd-best CB corps in the NFL since the start of last season in covering pass-catchers.
The Arizona Cardinals offensive line has allowed their QB just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (2nd-worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass game statistics across the board.
The Los Angeles Rams pass rush has gotten pressure on opposing QBs a measly 2.37 seconds after the snap (on average), grading out as the 4th-fastest in football since the start of last season.

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