Greg Dortch Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 14

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Greg Dortch

NFL · Player Props

Greg Dortch

WR · Arizona Cardinals

Receiving TD

Arizona Cardinals vs New England Patriots · Week 14, 2022

Updated Dec 13, 2022 12:56 AM UTC

Analysis

Greg Dortch Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+438/-1005).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -957 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -1005.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 133.5 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Arizona Cardinals have called the 2nd-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 63.2 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and better passing efficiency.
Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 36.7 pass attempts per game against the New England Patriots defense this year: 9th-most in football.
THE BLITZ projects Greg Dortch to be a more important option in his team's passing game near the end zone this week (12.8% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (7.5% in games he has played).

Favors Under

Greg Dortch has posted a meager 13.0 air yards per game this year: just 21st percentile among wide receivers.
The New England Patriots pass defense has surrendered the 7th-lowest Completion% in the league (63.3%) vs. WRs this year (63.3%).
The New England Patriots defense has conceded the 5th-least passing TDs in football to wideouts: 0.67 per game this year.
The New England Patriots safeties grade out as the 4th-best unit in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Arizona Cardinals O-line has allowed their quarterback just 2.34 seconds before getting pressured (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful impact on all pass attack stats across the board.

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