Gerald Everett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 9

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Gerald Everett

NFL · Player Props

Gerald Everett

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

New York Jets vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 9, 2023

Updated Nov 7, 2023 12:26 AM UTC

Analysis

Gerald Everett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-179/+136).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -169 before it was bet up to 2.5 @ -179.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to call the 4th-most plays on offense on the slate this week with 66.1 plays, given their underlying play style and game dynamics.
The model projects Gerald Everett to accrue 4.2 targets in this week's game, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Gerald Everett checks in as one of the top TEs in the pass game this year, averaging an excellent 3.2 adjusted catches per game while ranking in the 77th percentile.
Gerald Everett's 82.7% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable growth in his receiving skills over last year's 69.2% figure.

Favors Under

The leading projections forecast the Chargers offensive strategy to skew 2.4% more towards the run game than it did last season (context-neutralized) with offensive coordinator Kellen Moore now calling the plays.
This week's line suggests a rushing game script for the Chargers, who are favored by 3 points.
The leading projections forecast the Los Angeles Chargers as the 2nd-least pass-heavy offense among all teams this week with a 59.2% pass rate, given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been afraid to test the pass defense of the New York Jets, averaging the fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 34.0 per game) this year.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point reduction in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive volume) from last season to this one, Gerald Everett has been used much less in his team's air attack.

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