Gerald Everett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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Gerald Everett

NFL · Player Props

Gerald Everett

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Chicago Bears · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 12:41 AM UTC

Analysis

Gerald Everett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 2.5 (-166/+130).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 2.5 @ +128 before it was bet down to 2.5 @ +130.

Key Factors

Favors Over

At the moment, the 6th-most pass-oriented team in football (64.6% context-neutralized) according to the projection model is the Los Angeles Chargers.
Right now, the 2nd-quickest paced team in the NFL (in a neutral context) according to the projections is the Chargers.
The Chicago Bears defense has been a bit of pass funnel this year, allowing opposing teams to attempt the 8th-most passes in football (38.6 per game) this year.
With an outstanding 3.2 adjusted receptions per game (76th percentile) this year, Gerald Everett places as one of the best tight ends in the pass game in the NFL.
Gerald Everett's 82.6% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates an impressive improvement in his receiving ability over last season's 69.2% mark.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 2.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (adjusted for context).
The Chargers are an enormous 8.5-point favorite this week, likely leading to an extreme rushing game script.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point decline in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that calculates high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Gerald Everett has been relied on much less in his offense's air attack.

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