Gerald Everett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 7

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Gerald Everett

NFL · Player Props

Gerald Everett

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Kansas City Chiefs vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 7, 2023

Updated Oct 22, 2023 11:16 PM EST

Analysis

Gerald Everett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+124/-158).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 2.5 @ -158 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ +124.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a 5.5-point underdog this week, indicating a passing game script.
The model projects the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 2nd-most pass-oriented team among all teams this week with a 62.6% pass rate, based on their underlying traits and matchup dynamics.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Los Angeles Chargers are projected by the predictive model to run 66.9 offensive plays in this contest: the 2nd-most among all teams this week.
Our trusted projections expect Gerald Everett to notch 4.6 targets in this week's contest, on average, ranking him in the 77th percentile among tight ends.
With an outstanding 3.2 adjusted receptions per game (77th percentile) this year, Gerald Everett has been as one of the best pass-game tight ends in the league.

Favors Under

The Chargers feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and the predictive model expects their pass/run mix to lean 1.8% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).
Opposing teams have averaged 33.7 pass attempts per game vs. the Kansas City Chiefs defense this year: 7th-fewest in the league.
With a RATE1-RATE2 point diminishment in WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) from last year to this one, Gerald Everett has been relied on much less in his offense's pass game.
As it relates to safeties in defending receivers, Kansas City's unit has been terrific this year, projecting as the 7th-best in football.

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