Gerald Everett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 14

NFL · Player Props

Gerald Everett

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 14, 2023

Updated Dec 11, 2023 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Gerald Everett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-100/-130).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 3.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 3.5 @ -100.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Accounting for their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Los Angeles Chargers to pass on 60.5% of their opportunities: the 7th-greatest clip among all teams this week.
Calm weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being predicted in this game) typically mean better passing effectiveness, increased touchdown potential, increased air attack volume, and lower ground volume.
Our trusted projections expect Gerald Everett to accrue 4.3 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 79th percentile when it comes to TEs.
Gerald Everett's ball-catching skills have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion Rate increasing from 69.2% to 81.6%.
The Broncos pass defense has been torched for the 4th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (80.2%) to TEs this year (80.2%).

Favors Under

The Chargers have a new play-caller this season in offensive coordinator Kellen Moore, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 1.7% more towards rushing than it did last season (context-neutralized).
With a 3-point advantage, the Chargers are favored this week, implying more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.
Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is expected by the projections to see just 126.6 offensive plays called: the 3rd-lowest number out of all the games this week.
Opposing teams teams have been wary to pass too much against the Broncos, totaling the 10th-fewest attempts in football (just 34.6 per game) this year.
Gerald Everett's 19.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly worse this year than it was last year at 28.2.