Gerald Everett Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 10

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Gerald Everett

NFL · Player Props

Gerald Everett

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Los Angeles Chargers · Week 10, 2022

Updated Nov 14, 2022 1:06 AM UTC

Analysis

Gerald Everett Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (+135/-165).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -135 before it was bet down to 4.5 @ -165.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Chargers are a giant 7.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Los Angeles Chargers as the most pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 67.7% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have called the 2nd-most plays in football this year, totaling a monstrous 64.0 plays per game.
THE BLITZ projects Gerald Everett to accrue 6.9 targets in this week's game, on average, putting him in the 98th percentile among tight ends.
Gerald Everett's 35.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume metric that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 27.5.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Chargers to call the 2nd-least total plays among all teams this week with 62.8 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing QBs have averaged 34.1 pass attempts per game vs. the San Francisco 49ers defense this year: 10th-least in the NFL.
Gerald Everett's receiving reliability have declined this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.2% to 63.3%.
The San Francisco 49ers pass defense has conceded the 8th-lowest Completion% in the league (67.3%) to tight ends this year (67.3%).
The San Francisco 49ers linebackers rank as the 4th-best LB corps in the NFL this year in pass coverage.

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