Gerald Everett Receiving TD - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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Gerald Everett

NFL · Player Props

Gerald Everett

TE · Los Angeles Chargers

Receiving TD

Los Angeles Chargers vs Denver Broncos · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 18, 2022 12:16 AM EST

Analysis

Gerald Everett Receiving TD Prop is currently Over/Under 0.5 (+286/-494).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 0.5 @ -491 before it was bet down to 0.5 @ -494.

Key Factors

Favors Over

THE BLITZ projects this game to have the lowest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The Los Angeles Chargers have run the 8th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a monstrous 61.2 plays per game.
Gerald Everett has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.3% this year, which ranks in the 82nd percentile among TEs.
Gerald Everett has accrued significantly more air yards this year (47.0 per game) than he did last year (22.0 per game).
Gerald Everett's 35.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—a volume stat that measures high-value offensive involvement) has been substantially higher this season than it was last season at 27.5.

Favors Under

The Chargers are a 4-point favorite in this week's contest, indicating a rushing game script.
Gerald Everett's sure-handedness have diminished this season, with his Completion% decreasing from 82.2% to 59.8%.
The Denver Broncos safeties project as the 2nd-best collection of safeties in the league this year in pass coverage.
The Denver Broncos have stacked the box vs. opponents on just 9.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in the NFL. Choosing not to position an extra defender close to the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.

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