George Pickens Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 8

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George Pickens

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Jacksonville Jaguars · Week 8, 2023

Updated Oct 29, 2023 7:26 PM EST

Analysis

George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-105/-125).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ -100 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -105.

Key Factors

Favors Over

Given the game dynamics and the underlying play styles of each team, this game is anticipated by the projection model to have 133.3 plays on offense run: the 2nd-most out of all the games this week.
The weather forecast calls for 3-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and reduced ground volume, higher touchdown potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The Jacksonville Jaguars defense has been a notorious pass funnel this year, leading opposing teams to attempt the most passes in the league (43.7 per game) this year.
In this contest, George Pickens is expected by the projection model to find himself in the 85th percentile when it comes to wide receivers with 8.0 targets.
George Pickens's 72.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced stat that assesses high-value offensive involvement) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 44.8.

Favors Under

The Steelers have run the 6th-fewest plays in the league this year, averaging a mere 53.5 plays per game.
The Pittsburgh offensive line grades out as the 3rd-worst in football this year in protecting the QB, which has a harmful influence on all pass attack statistics across the board.
George Pickens's 56.5% Adjusted Completion Rate this season illustrates an impressive decrease in his pass-catching ability over last season's 62.5% rate.
As it relates to cornerbacks in covering pass-catchers, Jacksonville's group of CBs has been very good this year, ranking as the best in football.

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