George Pickens Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 15

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George Pickens

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 15, 2023

Updated Dec 17, 2023 3:41 AM UTC

Analysis

George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (+114/-148).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 3.5 @ -129 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ -148.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The passing attacks of both teams (as it relates to both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the calm "weather" conditions (i.e. no wind) inside this dome, while run volume may drop.
George Pickens's 58.2 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that examines high-value offensive usage) has been substantially better this season than it was last season at 44.8.

Favors Under

Right now, the 10th-most sluggish paced offense in football (adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Steelers.
Opposing quarterbacks teams have been wary to pass too much against the Indianapolis Colts, totaling the 6th-fewest attempts in the league (just 33.2 per game) this year.
The Steelers offensive line grades out as the 8th-worst in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a negative effect on all pass game stats across the board.
As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, Indianapolis's collection of safeties has been very good this year, ranking as the 10th-best in the NFL.

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