George Pickens Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 6

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NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Pittsburgh Steelers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 6, 2022

Updated Oct 16, 2022 11:51 PM UTC

Analysis

George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 4.5 (-110/-120).

The money has been on the Over as it opened 4.5 @ +105 before it was bet up to 4.5 @ -110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Steelers are an enormous 9.5-point underdog this week, likely creating an extreme passing game script.
THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers as the 3rd-least pass-oriented offense on the slate this week with a 61.9% pass rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run among all games this week at 135.3 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
Opposing offenses have averaged 38.0 pass attempts per game vs. the Tampa Bay Buccaneers defense this year: 9th-most in the NFL.
George Pickens has run a route on 87.4% of his offense's dropbacks this year, ranking him in the 79th percentile among wide receivers.

Favors Under

The Tampa Bay Buccaneers pass defense has surrendered the lowest Completion% in the league (54.7%) vs. wideouts this year (54.7%).
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers cornerbacks rank as the 2nd-best group of CBs in the NFL this year in pass coverage.
The Pittsburgh Steelers offensive line has allowed their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in football since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all passing offense stats across the board.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have used play action on just 18.5% of their passing plays since the start of last season (2nd-least in football), which ultimately hampers passing efficiency.
The Pittsburgh Steelers have gone for it on 4th down just 14.9% of the time since the start of last season (5th-least in football), which generally means less offensive volume, less touchdown potential, and lower offensive metrics across the board.