George Pickens Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 12

reorder

NFL · Player Props

George Pickens

WR · Pittsburgh Steelers

Receptions

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers · Week 12, 2022

Updated Nov 29, 2022 1:11 AM UTC

Analysis

George Pickens Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-140/+110).

The money has been on the Under as it opened 4.5 @ -175 before it was bet down to 3.5 @ +110.

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Pittsburgh Steelers have called the 7th-most plays in the NFL this year, averaging a colossal 61.5 plays per game.
This game will be played in a dome—which means no wind, increased pass volume, increased TD potential, and better passing efficiency.
George Pickens has run a route on 89.6% of his team's passing plays this year, putting him in the 81st percentile among wideouts.
THE BLITZ projects George Pickens to accrue 7.3 targets in this week's game, on average, placing him in the 81st percentile among WRs.
The Indianapolis Colts defensive ends profile as the worst DE corps in the NFL this year when it comes to rushing the passer.

Favors Under

THE BLITZ projects the Pittsburgh Steelers to be the 3rd-least pass-heavy team on the slate this week with a 61.5% pass rate, given their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.
THE BLITZ projects the Steelers to call the 5th-least offensive plays on the slate this week with 66.0 plays, accounting for their underlying tendencies and game dynamics.
Opposing teams have averaged 29.7 pass attempts per game against the Indianapolis Colts defense this year: least in football.
The Pittsburgh Steelers O-line has afforded their quarterback just 2.19 seconds before the pass (worst in the league since the start of last season), which has a harmful effect on all air attack stats across the board.
The Indianapolis Colts have stacked the box versus opponents on just 13.1% of their plays since the start of last season, least in football. Choosing not to position an extra defender near the line of scrimmage improves pass defense at the expense of run-stopping.