George Kittle Receptions - Player Prop Bet Week 11

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George Kittle

NFL · Player Props

George Kittle

TE · San Francisco 49ers

Receptions

San Francisco 49ers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers · Week 11, 2023

Updated Nov 20, 2023 12:16 AM UTC

Analysis

George Kittle Receptions Prop is currently Over/Under 3.5 (-120/-110).

Key Factors

Favors Over

The Buccaneers defense has been a well-known pass funnel this year, leading opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 6th-most passes in football (39.6 per game) this year.
In this game, George Kittle is predicted by the model to land in the 84th percentile among tight ends with 5.0 targets.
George Kittle's 47.6 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly better this year than it was last year at 42.2.
George Kittle checks in as one of the top TE receiving threats this year, averaging a terrific 3.9 adjusted catches per game while grading out in the 83rd percentile.
The Tampa Bay Buccaneers safeties profile as the 5th-worst group of safeties in the league this year in covering pass-catchers.

Favors Under

An extreme running game script is indicated by the 49ers being an enormous 13.5-point favorite in this game.
Given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the 49ers to pass on 50.7% of their opportunities: the 2nd-lowest rate on the slate this week.
The model projects this game to have the smallest number of plays run on the slate this week at 122.5 plays, given the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.
The 49ers have run the 2nd-fewest plays in the NFL this year, averaging a lowly 53.4 plays per game.
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind usually means reduced pass volume (and higher run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.

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